With about a week to go before Christmas Day, let’s consider the likelihood of a white Christmas – will we be waking up to a picturesque covering of snow on the big day?
So far, December has seen some large fluctuations in the weather, with spells of wetter, milder conditions interspersed with colder, sunnier conditions with temperatures closer to average.
This pattern looks set to continue over the next few days with some very mild but wet weather in places replaced by colder but sunnier weather by Friday with scattered showers. Similarly to recent days, any snow is likely to be restricted to higher ground across northern hills.
A return to largely mild weather is expected from Sunday (21st), with cloudy, damp conditions for many parts. Throughout the period, northern Scotland is likely to stay somewhat colder with further wintry showers over higher ground.
As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty – which is as you’d expect this far out. The strongest signal currently shown in the computer models is for the colder, showery weather to return across the UK, with showers most frequent across the north and east. But will we see any snow?
At this point, the most likely areas that will see some of the white stuff will be across higher ground in the north, with rain at lower levels. Temperatures will be fairly close to average and there will be some frosty nights under clear skies.
It is important to note, however, that there’s still a chance we could see very different weather for Christmas Day. The Met Office look at a range of computer model outcomes and a very small number of them do suggest a different picture, giving a forecast of stormy weather across the UK. Although this is currently at odds with the strongest signal from the forecast, the weather organisation will closely monitor this and other possible solutions over the coming days to see if the likelihoods change. So with just over a week to go until Christmas Day, it looks most likely that the majority of us won’t be seeing a white Christmas. Because of the uncertainty of long range forecasts, however, stay up-to-date here for the latest information on current forecasts and weather warnings.
© Met Office